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NEW YORK, USA

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NEW YORK, USA

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General Inquiries

Dec 5, 2004

Making Real Options Really Work

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man using Apple computer
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How can Real Options, Really Work?


For all their theoretical attractiveness as a way to value growth projects, real options have had a difficult time catching on with managers. CFOs tell us that real options overestimate the value of uncertain projects, encouraging companies to overinvest in them. In the worst case, they grant excessively ambitious managers a license to gamble with shareholders’ money…

Real options are a complement to, not a substitute for, discounted cash flow analysis.To pick the best growth projects, managers need to use the two methods in tandem.

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FORR ALL THEIR THEORETICAL attractivness as a way to value growth projects, real options have had a difficult time catching on with managers. CFOs tell us that real options overestimate the value of uncertain projects, encouraging companies to over invest in them. In the worst case, they grant excessively ambitious managers a license to gamble with shareholders' money. This reluctance stems at least in part from a suspicion that it's risky to apply valuation tools that have been developed for well-defined financial options to complex business projects.


The tools oblige managers to make many simplifying assumptions and therefore, the thinking goes, they cannot fully capture a proposal's multifaceted risks and opportunities. These concerns are legitimate, but we believe that abandoning real options as a valuation model is just as bad. Companies that rely on discounted cash flow analysis for valuing their projects fall inevitably into the trap of underestimating the value of their projects and consequently don't invest enough in uncertain but highly promising opportunities.

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